Models
Walk-forward backtest results (3 folds, 14-day forecast horizon). Lower MAPE is better; bias near zero is better. Computed by the offline Python pipeline.
seasonal_naive_7
Overall MAPE
27.4%
RMSE
18.6
Bias
1.53
Selected for 1 / 24 panels
hgbt
Overall MAPE
21.9%
RMSE
15.1
Bias
-0.18
Selected for 23 / 24 panels
Per-panel MAPE
| SKU | Segment | seasonal_naive_7 | hgbt | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTR-32OZ | food service | 26.5% | 20.9% | hgbt |
| CTR-32OZ | healthcare | 31.1% | 26.2% | hgbt |
| CTR-8OZ | food service | 25.1% | 16.3% | hgbt |
| CTR-8OZ | healthcare | 33.2% | 23.1% | hgbt |
| CUT-FRK | food service | 21.9% | 19.2% | hgbt |
| CUT-FRK | healthcare | 25.9% | 21.1% | hgbt |
| CUT-KIT | food service | 18.7% | 17.8% | hgbt |
| CUT-KIT | healthcare | 34.7% | 34.6% | hgbt |
| GLV-NIT-L | food service | 23.6% | 20.2% | hgbt |
| GLV-NIT-L | healthcare | 36.6% | 26.7% | hgbt |
| GLV-NIT-M | food service | 22.8% | 18.6% | hgbt |
| GLV-NIT-M | healthcare | 32.8% | 28.1% | hgbt |
| GLV-POL-L | food service | 21.7% | 14.2% | hgbt |
| GLV-POL-L | healthcare | 26.5% | 18.8% | hgbt |
| GLV-VIN-M | food service | 25.6% | 17.4% | hgbt |
| GLV-VIN-M | healthcare | 30.2% | 27.1% | hgbt |
| MED-GAU-4 | food service | 17.1% | 21.8% | seasonal_naive_7 |
| MED-GAU-4 | healthcare | 25.2% | 20.2% | hgbt |
| PRT-2OZ | food service | 26.0% | 16.1% | hgbt |
| PRT-2OZ | healthcare | 30.4% | 25.5% | hgbt |
| WRP-FOIL-18 | food service | 28.9% | 16.7% | hgbt |
| WRP-FOIL-18 | healthcare | 32.0% | 27.1% | hgbt |
| WRP-PLAS-12 | food service | 22.5% | 17.4% | hgbt |
| WRP-PLAS-12 | healthcare | 37.6% | 31.6% | hgbt |